Three Candidates Hypothetical with Two Red Candidates

Three Candidates Hypothetical with Two Red Candidates
Hypothetical run by Copilot using Elected Together Methodology


Candidates

CandidateAffiliation
Red 1Conservative (faction A)
Red 2Conservative (faction B)
Blue 1Progressive

Voter groups

GroupSize1st2nd3rd
G126Red 1Red 2
G26Red 1
G34Red 1Blue 1Red 2
G424Red 2Red 1
G56Red 2
G64Red 2Blue 1Red 1
G726Blue 1
G82Blue 1Red 1Red 2
G92Blue 1Red 2Red 1

Majority seat RCV

First-choice tally

CandidateVotesFrom groups
Red 136G1, G2, G3
Red 234G4, G5, G6
Blue 130G7, G8, G9

No majority; eliminate Blue 1.

Transfers from eliminated Blue 1

From groupSizeNext viableTransferExhaust
G726026
G82Red 120
G92Red 220
Totals30426

Final-round tally

CandidateVotesShare of continuing
Red 138( \frac{38}{74} = 51.35% )
Red 236( \frac{36}{74} = 48.65% )
Exhausted26
  • Result: Red 1 wins the Majority Seat.

Majority seat power attribution

Used-to-elect ballots for Red 1

Contributing groupsBallots
G1 (R1>R2)26
G2 (R1 only)6
G3 (R1>Blue>R2)4
G8 (Blue>R1>R2)2
Total used-to-elect38

Second-choice addition to Red 1

Eligible groupsCriterionBallots added
G4 (R2>R1)Red 1 listed second24
G5 (R2 only)No second0
G6 (R2>Blue>R1)Red 1 listed third0
G7, G9 (Blue-first)Not Red 1 second0
Total added24
  • Majority seat voting power: (38 + 24 = 62) ballots → (62%) of electorate → (1.24) seats.
  • Removed from minority pool: G1, G2, G3, G8 (used-to-elect) and G4 (second-choice addition).

Minority seat RCV

Minority pool composition

GroupSize1st2nd3rd
G56Red 2
G64Red 2Blue 1Red 1
G726Blue 1
G92Blue 1Red 2Red 1
Total38

First-choice tally within minority pool

CandidateVotes
Blue 128
Red 210
  • Result: Blue 1 wins the Minority Seat (majority of the pool on first count).
  • Minority seat voting power: (2.00 – 1.24 = 0.76) seats.

Final outcomes

SeatWinnerVoting power
Majority seatRed 11.24
Minority seatBlue 10.76
  • Takeaway: Minimal Red→Blue crossover and heavy Blue truncation keep Blue ballots in the minority pool, securing the Minority Seat, while strong Red intra-cohesion pushes Red 1 to the Majority Seat and absorbs R2-loyal second choices into Red 1’s office power.

If you want to probe thresholds, we can nudge G6 or G9 by ±2 voters to see exactly when Red 2 can flip the minority seat without breaking the “few, not many” constraint.