Four Candidates Hypothetical

Four Candidates Hypothetical
Hypothetical run by Copilot using Elected Together Methodology

1. Scenario interpretation framework

Candidate table

CandidateAffiliation
Blue 1Progressive
Red 1Conservative
Green 1Independent/Centrist
Gold 1Libertarian

Voter group table

Design aims:

  • Strong Blue–Red separation (minimal direct crossover).
  • Green and Gold act as bridge/secondary preferences.
  • No first-round majority.
GroupSize1st choice2nd choice3rd choice4th choice
G122Blue 1Green 1Gold 1Red 1
G210Blue 1Green 1
G38Blue 1
G421Red 1Gold 1Green 1Blue 1
G59Red 1Gold 1
G65Red 1
G713Green 1Blue 1Gold 1Red 1
G85Green 1Red 1Blue 1Gold 1
G97Gold 1Red 1Green 1Blue 1
  • Total electorate: 100 voters

2. Majority seat RCV process

First-choice tally

CandidateVotesFrom groups
Blue 140G1, G2, G3
Red 135G4, G5, G6
Green 118G7, G8
Gold 17G9
  • No candidate > 50% → proceed to runoff.

Round 1: eliminate Gold 1 (7)

  • Transfer: G9 (7) → Red 1 (next viable: Red 1)

Tally after transfer:

CandidateVotesExhausted
Blue 1400
Red 1420
Green 1180

Round 2: eliminate Green 1 (18)

  • Transfer: G7 (13) → Blue 1 (next viable: Blue 1)
  • Transfer: G8 (5) → Red 1 (next viable: Red 1)

Tally after transfer:

CandidateVotesExhausted
Blue 1530
Red 1470
  • Majority winner: Blue 1 (53%)

Majority seat power allocation

  • Ballots used to elect Blue 1: G1 (22), G2 (10), G3 (8), plus transfers from G7 (13).
  • Second-choice additions for Blue 1 not already used: None (no remaining group lists Blue 1 as second without already contributing to the majority tally).

Power computation: [ 2.0 \text{ seats} \times 0.53 = 1.06 \text{ seats} ]

  • Majority seat: Blue 1 with 1.06 seats of voting power.
  • Removed from minority pool (for being used in majority power): G1 (22), G2 (10), G3 (8), G7 (13).
  • Second-choice removals: None (no qualifying ballots).

3. Minority seat RCV process

Minority pool composition

GroupSize1st choice2nd choice3rd choice4th choice
G421Red 1Gold 1Green 1Blue 1
G59Red 1Gold 1
G65Red 1
G85Green 1Red 1Blue 1Gold 1
G97Gold 1Red 1Green 1Blue 1
  • Total ballots in minority pool: 47

First-choice tally (minority pool)

CandidateVotesFrom groups
Red 135G4, G5, G6
Gold 17G9
Green 15G8
Blue 10
  • No candidate > 50% of 47 → proceed.

Round 1 (minority): eliminate Green 1 (5)

  • Transfer: G8 (5) → Red 1 (next viable: Red 1)

Tally after transfer:

CandidateVotesExhausted
Red 1400
Gold 170
  • Minority winner: Red 1 (40 of 47)

Minority seat power allocation

Remaining power: [ 2.0 – 1.06 = 0.94 \text{ seats} ]

  • Minority seat: Red 1 with 0.94 seats of voting power.

4. Final seat outcomes

Seat typeCandidateAffiliationVoting power
Majority seatBlue 1Progressive1.06
Minority seatRed 1Conservative0.94

5. Narrative and explanation

  • Coalition structure: Blue and Red maintain polarized first-choice blocs with minimal direct crossover. Green and Gold function as bridge preferences—Green leaning Blue, Gold leaning Red—shaping transfers without collapsing ideological distinction.
  • Runoff dynamics: Gold 1’s early elimination consolidates Red. Green 1’s elimination then splits decisively toward Blue (G7 → Blue) and Red (G8 → Red), pushing Blue over the majority threshold.
  • Power attribution: Because few ballots outside Blue’s base listed Blue as a second choice, Blue’s office power closely tracks the actual win margin (1.06). The second-choice addition rule had no incremental effect here, signaling authentic minority space.
  • Minority representation: With Blue-used ballots removed, Red dominates the minority pool and secures 0.94 seats—substantial counterweight to the majority. This yields two distinct voices with near-parity influence across the term, subject to annual stewardship shifts.
  • Edge-case note: No tie occurred, so dual elimination and “original first-choice tiebreak” rules were not invoked. No ballots exhausted; if exhaustion had occurred, they would have been equally divided among remaining candidates per ET rules.