Case Study of Alaska’s 2022 U.S. House Election
Study run by Copilot using Elected Together Methodology
Mary Peltola won Alaska’s November 2022 at-large U.S. House election under the state’s ranked-choice voting (RCV), defeating Sarah Palin and Nick Begich after transfers; her final-round share was 54.96% to Palin’s 45.04%. First-choice support was approximately Peltola 48.77%, Palin 25.74%, Begich 23.33%, with Chris Bye constituting the remaining small share before elimination.
Note: This run applies the Elected Together (ET) framework, not Alaska’s official RCV rules. Transfers and exhaustion handling follow the ET framework, so outcomes and intermediate tallies differ from the official count. Also of Note the second and third choice candidates are rough guess estimates.
Scenario interpretation framework
Candidate table
| Candidate name | Candidate | Affiliation |
| Mary Peltola | Blue 1 | Democratic |
| Sarah Palin | Red 1 | Republican |
| Nick Begich III | Red 2 | Republican |
| Chris Bye | Gold 1 | Libertarian |
Sources:
Electorate size and certified context
- We use the certified first-round counts published for Peltola, Palin, and Begich, with Bye as the residual share implied by those totals (rounded to whole ballots). This anchors the simulation to the actual electorate while allowing ET’s distinct transfer logic to operate.
Voter group table
Modeled voter groups (G1–G10) reflect real first-choice totals and realistic ranking behavior consistent with Alaska’s 2022 dynamics. To better reflect partisan loyalty and limited crossover, we’ve reduced the number of voters ranking across the Blue–Red divide. Many voters now leave later rankings blank rather than crossing party lines.
| Group | Size | 1st choice | 2nd choice | 3rd choice | 4th choice |
| G1 | 38,000 | Peltola | Begich | ||
| G2 | 22,000 | Peltola | Bye | ||
| G3 | 68,553 | Peltola | |||
| G4 | 64,866 | Palin | Begich | ||
| G5 | 3,000 | Palin | |||
| G6 | 58,513 | Begich | Palin | ||
| G7 | 3,000 | Begich | |||
| G8 | 2,850 | Bye | Peltola | ||
| G9 | 1,900 | Bye | Palin | ||
| G10 | 946 | Bye |
- Total electorate: 263,628 ballots.
- First-choice totals (match certified tallies for top three): Peltola 128,553; Palin 67,866; Begich 61,513; Bye 5,696 (residual from certified totals and shares).
Majority seat RCV process (ET rules)
Transfer and exhaustion rules used
- Runoff tie logic: Not triggered here (no initial ties for last place).
- Exhaustion attribution: When a ballot has no further viable ranking, its value is split equally among all remaining candidates (your “exhausted ballots are distributed equally” rule).
- Second-choice consolidation for voting power: After the Majority winner is determined, all ballots that listed the winner as either first or second are consolidated to set Majority voting power; those second-choice ballots are removed from the Minority pool.
Round 1: Initial tally
| Candidate | Votes |
| Peltola (Blue 1) | 128,553 |
| Palin (Red 1) | 67,866 |
| Begich (Red 2) | 61,513 |
| Bye (Gold 1) | 5,696 |
- Threshold to win (>50%): 131,815.
- No candidate over 50%; lowest is Bye.
Round 2: Eliminate Bye, redistribute
- Transfers from Bye-first groups:
- G8 → Peltola: 2,850
- G9 → Palin: 1,900
- G10 exhausted → equally to Peltola, Palin, Begich: 946 ÷ 3 = 315.333 each
| Candidate | Round 1 | Transfers in | New total |
| Peltola | 128,553 | 2,850 + 315.333 | 131,718.333 |
| Palin | 67,866 | 1,900 + 315.333 | 70,081.333 |
| Begich | 61,513 | 315.333 | 61,828.333 |
- Still no candidate >50%; lowest is Begich.
Round 3: Eliminate Begich, redistribute
- Transfers from Begich-first groups:
- G6 → Palin: 58,513
- G7 exhausted → equally to Peltola and Palin: 3,000 ÷ 2 = 1,500 each
- Plus Begich’s prior fractional inflow (315.333 from Round 2) has no next choice → equally to Peltola and Palin: 157.6665 each
| Candidate | Prior total | Transfers in | Final total |
| Peltola | 131,718.333 | 1,500 + 157.6665 | 133,375.9995 |
| Palin | 70,081.333 | 58,513 + 1,500 + 157.6665 | 130,252.000 |
- Peltola surpasses 50% and wins the Majority Seat.
Direct outcome: Majority Seat winner — Mary Peltola (Blue 1).
Consolidating majority voting power
Per ET, we now sum all ballots listing Peltola first or second to determine Majority seat voting power.
- Peltola-first ballots (G1–G3): 128,553
- Peltola-second ballots (from Bye-first G8): 2,850
- Plus exhausted ballots attributed to Peltola:
- From G10: 315.333
- From G7: 1,500
- From Begich’s Round 2 inflow: 157.6665
- Total majority-power ballots: 128,553 + 2,850 + 315.333 + 1,500 + 157.6665 = 133,375.9995
- Majority seat voting power: 133,375.9995 of 263,628 = 50.61%
- Majority seat voting power: 50.61% of two seats = 1.012 seats
These second-choice ballots (2,850) are removed from the pool before Minority selection.
Minority seat RCV process (ET rules)
Minority pool setup
- Remove all Peltola-first (128,553) and Peltola-second (2,850) ballots.
- Remaining pool: 263,628 − 131,403 = 132,225 ballots.
First-choice tallies within this subset:
| Candidate | Votes in minority pool |
| Palin (Red 1) | 67,866 |
| Begich (Red 2) | 61,513 |
| Bye (Gold 1) | 2,846 |
- Palin has 67,866 / 132,225 = 51.3% in Round 1, exceeding 50%, so no runoffs are required.
Direct outcome: Minority Seat winner — Sarah Palin (Red 1).
Voting power split
- Majority: Mary Peltola — 1.012 seats (50.61% of total voting power)
- Minority: Sarah Palin — 0.988 seats (49.39% of total voting power)
Narrative and explanation
- Distinct voices preserved: ET’s second-choice consolidation removes Peltola-second ballots from the Minority contest, ensuring the Minority Seat reflects a genuinely different coalition rather than a near-duplicate of the Majority. Here, that consolidates Republicans around Palin for the Minority Seat despite Peltola’s overall RCV victory under the official system.
- Exhaustion attribution effects: By equally attributing exhausted ballots among remaining candidates, Peltola cleared 50% for the Majority Seat even though many Begich ballots lacked a Peltola ranking. Under ET, those unranked late transfers do not inflate Peltola’s governance power because only first and second placements count toward seat power—producing a near 50/50 power split.
- Coalition dynamics: With roughly 1.012 vs. 0.988 seats, power-sharing would be finely balanced, likely requiring cross-voice collaboration on agenda-setting. In practice, Peltola would still hold the Majority Seat’s symbolic mandate, while Palin would hold slightly less procedural voting weight in a straight two-seat sum—an intentional ET tension that invites bargaining rather than domination.
- Annual stewardship vote: In ET’s ongoing accountability step, constituents could periodically shift which of the two voices carries their district vote for the year. In a split this tight, stewardship outcomes would become a live forum for responsiveness and coalition-building, not a rubber stamp.
Quick cross-check with the official RCV result
- Under Alaska’s official RCV, Peltola won the final round 54.96% to 45.04% over Palin (after Bye and Begich eliminations). ET, by design, converts such a majority into a shared-power arrangement and structurally preserves a distinct Minority voice rather than awarding both effective seats to the majority coalition