Five Candidates Hypothetical
Hypothetical run by Copilot using Elected Together Methodology
1. Scenario interpretation framework
Candidate table
| Candidate | Affiliation |
| Blue 1 | Progressive |
| Red 1 | Conservative |
| Green 1 | Independent/Centrist |
| Gold 1 | Libertarian |
| Purple 1 | Social Democrat |
Voter group table
Design aims:
- Strong Blue–Red separation (no large crossover blocs).
- Green and Gold act as bridge preferences: Purple leans Blue.
- No first-round majority; some truncated rankings to exercise exhaustion rules if triggered.
| Group | Size | 1st choice | 2nd choice | 3rd choice | 4th choice | 5th choice |
| G1 | 18 | Blue 1 | Green 1 | Purple 1 | Gold 1 | Red 1 |
| G2 | 10 | Blue 1 | Green 1 | Gold 1 | Purple 1 | |
| G3 | 8 | Blue 1 | Purple 1 | Green 1 | ||
| G4 | 16 | Red 1 | Gold 1 | Green 1 | Purple 1 | Blue 1 |
| G5 | 10 | Red 1 | Gold 1 | Green 1 | ||
| G6 | 8 | Red 1 | Green 1 | |||
| G7 | 9 | Green 1 | Blue 1 | Purple 1 | Gold 1 | Red 1 |
| G8 | 5 | Green 1 | Red 1 | Gold 1 | Blue 1 | Purple 1 |
| G9 | 6 | Gold 1 | Red 1 | Green 1 | Blue 1 | Purple 1 |
| G10 | 3 | Gold 1 | Red 1 | Green 1 | ||
| G11 | 4 | Purple 1 | Blue 1 | Green 1 | Gold 1 | Red 1 |
| G12 | 3 | Purple 1 | Blue 1 | Green 1 |
- Total electorate: 100 voters
2. Majority seat RCV process
First-choice tally
| Candidate | Votes | From groups |
| Blue 1 | 36 | G1, G2, G3 |
| Red 1 | 34 | G4, G5, G6 |
| Green 1 | 14 | G7, G8 |
| Gold 1 | 9 | G9, G10 |
| Purple 1 | 7 | G11, G12 |
- No candidate > 50% → proceed to runoff.
Round 1: eliminate Purple 1 (7)
Transfers:
- G11 (4): to Blue 1 (next viable)
- G12 (3): to Blue 1 (next viable)
Tally after transfer:
| Candidate | Votes | Exhausted |
| Blue 1 | 43 | 0 |
| Red 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Green 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Gold 1 | 9 | 0 |
Round 2: eliminate Gold 1 (9)
Transfers:
- G9 (6): to Red 1 (next viable)
- G10 (3): to Red 1 (next viable)
Tally after transfer:
| Candidate | Votes | Exhausted |
| Blue 1 | 43 | 0 |
| Red 1 | 43 | 0 |
| Green 1 | 14 | 0 |
Round 3: eliminate Green 1 (14)
Transfers:
- G7 (9): to Blue 1 (next viable)
- G8 (5): to Red 1 (next viable)
Final majority tally:
| Candidate | Votes | Exhausted |
| Blue 1 | 52 | 0 |
| Red 1 | 48 | 0 |
- Majority seat winner: Blue 1 at 52%
Majority seat power allocation
- Ballots contributing to Blue 1’s win: G1 (18), G2 (10), G3 (8), G11 (4), G12 (3), G7 (9).
- Total used: (18 + 10 + 8 + 4 + 3 + 9 = 52).
- Second-choice additions (not used in deciding the winner): None. No remaining groups list Blue 1 as second without already transferring to Blue 1.
- Majority seat voting power: (2.0 \times 0.52 = 1.04) seats.
- Removed from minority pool (power attribution rule): G1, G2, G3, G7, G11, G12 → (52) ballots.
3. Minority seat RCV process
Minority pool composition
| Group | Size | 1st choice | 2nd choice | 3rd choice |
| G4 | 16 | Red 1 | Gold 1 | Green 1 |
| G5 | 10 | Red 1 | Gold 1 | Green 1 |
| G6 | 8 | Red 1 | Green 1 | |
| G8 | 5 | Green 1 | Red 1 | Gold 1 |
| G9 | 6 | Gold 1 | Red 1 | Green 1 |
| G10 | 3 | Gold 1 | Red 1 | Green 1 |
- Ballots in minority pool: (16 + 10 + 8 + 5 + 6 + 3 = 48)
First-choice tally (minority pool)
| Candidate | Votes | From groups |
| Red 1 | 34 | G4, G5, G6 |
| Gold 1 | 9 | G9, G10 |
| Green 1 | 5 | G8 |
| Blue 1 | 0 | — |
| Purple 1 | 0 | — |
- No candidate > 50% of 48 → proceed.
Round 1 (minority): dual elimination of Blue 1 and Purple 1 (both at 0)
- Both eliminated simultaneously (no transfers).
Tally unchanged:
| Candidate | Votes | Exhausted |
| Red 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Gold 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Green 1 | 5 | 0 |
Round 2 (minority): eliminate Green 1 (5)
Transfers:
- G8 (5): to Red 1 (next viable)
Final minority tally:
| Candidate | Votes | Exhausted |
| Red 1 | 39 | 0 |
| Gold 1 | 9 | 0 |
- Minority seat winner: Red 1 (39 of 48)
Minority seat voting power
- Remaining power: (2.0 – 1.04 = 0.96) seats.
- Minority seat: Red 1 with (0.96) seats of voting power.
4. Final seat outcomes
| Seat type | Candidate | Affiliation | Voting power |
| Majority seat | Blue 1 (Alice) | Progressive | 1.04 |
| Minority seat | Red 1 (Ben) | Conservative | 0.96 |
5. Narrative and explanation
- Coalition dynamics: Blue and Red remain polarized with minimal direct crossover. Purple’s support flows to Blue; Gold’s to Red; Green splits, slightly favoring Blue via G7 and Red via G8. This creates a symmetric mid-game (43–43) before Green’s elimination decides the majority.
- Runoff logic clarity: No first-round majority; sequential eliminations proceed without ties after Round 1. No ballots exhausted, as each eliminated bloc had a next viable ranking. If any ballot had truncated at elimination, its weight would have been split equally among remaining candidates per ET rules.
- Power attribution effects: With no second-choice additions available for Blue 1, office power tracks the actual win margin closely (1.04). Removing the winner’s contributing ballots preserves a robust minority pool.
- Representation outcome: Red 1 dominates the minority pool and secures 0.96 seats—near-parity influence—setting the stage for meaningful shared stewardship in the annual vote.