Three Candidates Hypothetical A

Three Candidates Hypothetical A
Hypothetical run by Copilot using Elected Together Methodology

Candidate Table

CandidateAffiliation
Blue 1Progressive
Red 1Conservative
Green 1Independent

Voter Group Table

We’ll build six groups to diversify ranking behavior and remove large direct crossover between Blue-first and Red-first voters.

GroupSize1st Choice2nd Choice3rd Choice
G128Blue 1Green 1
G217Blue 1Green 1
G37Blue 1
G425Red 1Green 1
G518Red 1Green 1
G65Green 1Blue 1

Total electorate: 100 voters.

Design note:

  • Blue-first groups (G1–G3) don’t have Red as a second choice in significant numbers.
  • Red-first groups (G4–G5) don’t have Blue as a second choice in significant numbers.
  • Green remains the bridge candidate, with second-choice appeal across both camps.

2. Majority Seat RCV Process

First-Choice Tally

CandidateVotes (Groups)
Blue 152 (G1 + G2 + G3)
Red 143 (G4 + G5)
Green 15 (G6)

Blue 1 has >50% in the first round → Wins Majority Seat immediately.


Majority Seat Power Allocation

Per ET rules:

  • Add ballots listing Blue 1 as second choice to the Majority power tally.
  • That includes: G6 (5 voters) — since they ranked Green 1 first, Blue 1 second.

Total ballots for Blue 1’s power:

  • From majority victory: 52
  • Plus second-choice additions: 5 = 57 ballots → 57% of electorate → 1.14 seats of voting power

Ballots Removed from Minority Pool

  • G6’s 5 voters are removed before Minority selection, because they had Blue 1 as second choice.

3. Minority Seat RCV Process

Remaining ballots:

  • G4 (25) — Red 1 > Green 1
  • G5 (18) — Red 1 > Green 1
  • Green 1’s own group (none remaining — G6 removed)

First-choice tally in Minority pool:

CandidateVotes
Red 143
Green 10

No elimination needed — Red 1 wins Minority Seat.


Minority Seat Voting Power

  • Remaining power: 2.0 total − 1.14 (Majority) = 0.86 seats.
  • Red 1 holds 0.86 seats of voting power.

4. Final Seat Outcomes

Seat TypeCandidateAffiliationVoting Power
Majority SeatBlue 1Progressive1.14
Minority SeatRed 1Conservative0.86

5. Narrative and Strategic Commentary

Here, the absence of major Blue–Red crossover means the Majority power score stays close to its actual win percentage. Green 1’s role as a consensus second choice was modest — only a small bloc (G6) contributed to increasing the Majority’s voting power. Because both major blocs were nearly evenly sized, but Blue just crossed the threshold, the Minority retains substantial influence (0.86 seats), creating genuine two-voice governance.