This is a What If Study of Minnesota 2008 U.S. Senate Race
Study run by Copilot using Elected Together Methodology
Electorate size: 2,894,543 (certified)
Since this was not a Ranked Choice Voting Election, all additional choices are hypothetical. It was however the election that sparked the idea for Elected Together.
Candidate Table
| Candidate Name | ID | Affiliation |
| Al Franken | Blue 1 | Democratic–Farmer–Labor (DFL) |
| Norm Coleman | Red 1 | Republican |
| Dean Barkley | Gold 1 | Independence |
| James Niemackl | Green 1 | Constitution |
| Charles Aldrich | Purple 1 | Libertarian |
| Write‑ins | Orange 1 | Miscellaneous |
Voter Group Table — First‑Choice Distribution
| Group | Size (votes) | 1st Choice | 2nd Choice | 3rd Choice | 4th Choice | 5th Choice |
| G1 | 1,212,629 | Blue 1 | — | — | — | — |
| G2 | 1,212,317 | Red 1 | — | — | — | — |
| G3a | 240,572 | Gold 1 | Blue 1 | — | — | — |
| G3b | 153,091 | Gold 1 | Red 1 | — | — | — |
| G4a | 8,000 | Green 1 | Red 1 | — | — | — |
| G4b | 7,647 | Green 1 | Blue 1 | — | — | — |
| G5a | 7,000 | Purple 1 | Red 1 | — | — | — |
| G5b | 6,915 | Purple 1 | Blue 1 | — | — | — |
| G6a | 1,316 | Orange 1 | Blue 1 | — | — | — |
| G6b | 1,315 | Orange 1 | Red 1 | — | — | — |
Second‑choice assignments follow the agreed single‑transfer model.
Majority Seat RCV Process
Round 1 — Initial Tally
| Candidate | Votes | % Active |
| Blue 1 | 1,212,629 | 41.91% |
| Red 1 | 1,212,317 | 41.90% |
| Gold 1 | 393,663 | 13.60% |
| Green 1 | 15,647 | 0.54% |
| Purple 1 | 13,915 | 0.48% |
| Orange 1 | 2,631 | 0.09% |
Eliminate Orange 1 (Write‑ins)
Round 2 — Eliminate Orange 1
Transfers (2,631 votes):
- G6a → Blue 1 = 1,316
- G6b → Red 1 = 1,315
New totals:
| Candidate | Votes |
| Blue 1 | 1,213,945 |
| Red 1 | 1,213,632 |
| Gold 1 | 393,663 |
| Green 1 | 15,647 |
| Purple 1 | 13,915 |
Eliminate Purple 1
Round 3 — Eliminate Purple 1
Transfers (13,915 votes):
- G5a → Red 1 = 7,000
- G5b → Blue 1 = 6,915
New totals:
| Candidate | Votes |
| Blue 1 | 1,220,860 |
| Red 1 | 1,220,632 |
| Gold 1 | 393,663 |
| Green 1 | 15,647 |
Eliminate Green 1
Round 4 — Eliminate Green 1
Transfers (15,647 votes):
- G4a → Red 1 = 8,000
- G4b → Blue 1 = 7,647
New totals:
| Candidate | Votes |
| Blue 1 | 1,228,507 |
| Red 1 | 1,228,632 |
| Gold 1 | 393,663 |
Eliminate Gold 1
Round 5 — Eliminate Gold 1
Transfers (393,663 votes):
- G3a → Blue 1 = 240,572
- G3b → Red 1 = 153,091
Final Totals:
| Candidate | Votes | % Active |
| Blue 1 | 1,469,079 | 50.77% |
| Red 1 | 1,381,723 | 47.74% |
Majority Seat Result
- Winner: Blue 1 (Al Franken)
- Voting Power: 1.02 seats
Second‑Choice Inclusion Adjustment
Rule: Add ballots listing Blue 1 as 2nd choice that weren’t used in Majority decision. Here: all such ballots had already transferred in, so no extra ballots to add. Majority power remains 1.02 seats.
Minority Seat RCV Process
Minority Pool Reconstruction
Only ballots not allocated to Majority remain. This equals Red 1’s final Majority round tally: 1,381,723 ballots.
Round 1 — Initial Minority Tally
| Candidate | Votes | % Minority Pool |
| Red 1 | 1,212,317 | 87.74% |
| Gold 1 | 153,091 | 11.08% |
| Green 1 | 8,000 | 0.58% |
| Purple 1 | 7,000 | 0.51% |
| Orange 1 | 1,315 | 0.09% |
Red 1 > 50% immediately — no elimination needed.
Minority Seat Result
- Winner: Red 1 (Norm Coleman)
- Voting Power: 0.98 seats
Final Seat Outcomes
| Seat | Winner | Voting Power (seats) |
| Majority | Blue 1 (Al Franken) | 1.02 |
| Minority | Red 1 (Norm Coleman) | 0.98 |
Observations
- Split Gold, Green, Purple, and Orange groups: Dividing voters into Blue‑leaning and Red‑leaning subgroups clarified transfer behavior and removed exhaustion ambiguity.
- Representation balance: ET delivered nearly equal power — a slight advantage to Blue 1 — matching the electorate’s deep divide.
- No extra second‑choice boost: Every possible Blue‑second ballot was already counted toward Majority, underscoring the importance of how transfers unfold.