What Actually Happened in Maine’s 2018 Congressional Race
In November 2018, Maine made history by using ranked-choice voting (RCV) for the first time in a federal election. The race for the 2nd Congressional District was fiercely contested between incumbent Republican Bruce Poliquin and Democratic challenger Jared Golden, with two independents — Tiffany Bond and Will Hoar — also on the ballot.
On election night, Poliquin led in first-choice votes, but no candidate reached the required majority. As the RCV process unfolded, votes from eliminated candidates were redistributed based on voter rankings. Ultimately, Jared Golden overtook Poliquin in the final round and was declared the winner — a result that sparked national attention and a legal challenge from Poliquin, who argued that RCV was unconstitutional. The courts upheld the system, and Golden took office.
While the official RCV process determined a single winner, our dual-seat simulation explores a richer interpretation: one that honors both majority and minority representation. By modeling voter behavior more realistically — limiting deep rankings and reducing unlikely cross-party preferences — we can better reflect how people voted and how their voices might be represented in a two-seat framework.
Maine’s 2018 Congressional Race
Candidate table
| Candidate name | Candidate | Affiliation |
| Jared Golden | Blue 1 | Democratic |
| Bruce Poliquin | Red 1 | Republican |
| Tiffany Bond | Orange 1 | Independent |
| Will Hoar | Green 1 | Independent |
Electorate size: 289,624
Voter group table (modeled, sums to official first-choice totals)
| Group | Size | 1st choice | 2nd choice | 3rd choice |
| G1 | 60,000 | Poliquin | Bond | Hoar |
| G2 | 50,000 | Poliquin | Hoar | Bond |
| G3 | 22,842 | Poliquin | ||
| G4 | 1,342 | Poliquin | Golden | |
| G5 | 60,000 | Golden | Bond | Hoar |
| G6 | 50,000 | Golden | Hoar | Bond |
| G7 | 20,693 | Golden | ||
| G14 | 1,320 | Golden | Poliquin | |
| G8 | 10,200 | Bond | Golden | Hoar |
| G9 | 4,700 | Bond | Poliquin | Hoar |
| G10 | 1,652 | Bond | ||
| G11 | 4,100 | Hoar | Golden | Bond |
| G12 | 2,000 | Hoar | Poliquin | Bond |
| G13 | 775 | Hoar |
- Poliquin total = 60,000 + 50,000 + 22,842 + 1,342 = 134,184
- Golden total = 60,000 + 50,000 + 20,693 + 1,320 = 132,013
- Bond total = 10,200 + 4,700 + 1,652 = 16,552
- Hoar total = 4,100 + 2,000 + 775 = 6,875
Majority seat RCV process (exhaustion only split if no majority in final round)
- Rule: Exhausted ballots are ignored until the final round. If no candidate has a majority when only two remain, exhausted ballots are equally divided between them.
Round 1 — first-choice tally
| Candidate | Votes |
| Poliquin (Red 1) | 134,184 |
| Golden (Blue 1) | 132,013 |
| Bond (Orange 1) | 16,552 |
| Hoar (Green 1) | 6,875 |
Threshold: 144,813 No majority; eliminate Hoar.
Round 2 — eliminate Hoar; distribute G11 and G12
- To Golden: +4,100 (G11)
- To Poliquin: +2,000 (G12)
| Candidate | New total |
| Poliquin | 134,184 + 2,000 = 136,184 |
| Golden | 132,013 + 4,100 = 136,113 |
| Bond | 16,552 |
Threshold unchanged at 144,813. No majority; eliminate Bond.
Round 3 — eliminate Bond; distribute G8 and G9
- To Golden: +10,200 (G8)
- To Poliquin: +4,700 (G9)
| Candidate | Pre-exhaustion tally |
| Golden | 136,113 + 10,200 = 146,313 |
| Poliquin | 136,184 + 4,700 = 140,884 |
Golden crosses the fixed threshold 144,813 → Jared Golden wins the Majority Seat.
No need to split exhausted ballots, as Golden already has a majority.
Majority Seat Voting Power Calculation
To calculate the voting power of the Majority Seat holder (Golden):
- First-choice votes contributing to Majority win: 132,013
- Second-choice votes for Golden (regardless of round):
- G4: 1,342 → 2nd choice
- G8: 10,200 → 2nd choice
- G11: 4,100 → 2nd choice
Total second-choice votes for Golden: 1,342 (G4) + 10,200 (G8) + 4,100 (G11) = 15,642
Total voting power = 132,013 + 15,642 = 147,655
Percentage of total electorate = 147,655 / 289,624 ≈ 50.98%
Minority seat RCV process
Remove all ballots counted toward Majority voting power (Golden ranked 1st or 2nd). Remainder by origin:
- G1: Golden not ranked → retained
- G2: Golden not ranked → retained
- G3: no Golden → retained
- G4: Golden ranked 2nd → removed
- G5: Golden ranked 1st → removed
- G6: Golden ranked 1st → removed
- G7: Golden ranked 1st → removed
- G8: Golden ranked 2nd → removed
- G9: Golden not ranked → retained
- G10: no Golden → retained
- G11: Golden ranked 2nd → removed
- G12: Golden not ranked → retained
- G13: no Golden → retained
- G14: Golden ranked 1st → removed
Remaining groups: G1, G2, G3, G9, G10, G12, G13
- Poliquin‑first remaining = 60,000 (G1) + 50,000 (G2) + 22,842 (G3) = 132,842
- Bond‑first remaining = 4,700 (G9) + 1,652 (G10) = 6,352
- Hoar‑first remaining = 2,000 (G12) + 775 (G13) = 2,775
Minority pool size = 141,969
Minority Round 1 — first-choice tally
| Candidate | Votes |
| Poliquin | 132,842 |
| Bond | 6,352 |
| Hoar | 2,775 |
Poliquin already exceeds 50% of the Minority pool; Bruce Poliquin wins the Minority Seat.
Narrative and verification notes
- Exhausted ballots are ignored unless no candidate has a majority in the final round.
- In this case, Golden already exceeds the threshold before exhaustion is considered, so no split occurs.
- Golden wins the Majority Seat with 147,655 votes.
- Poliquin wins the Minority Seat with 132,842 votes from the remaining pool.
Minority Seat Voting Power Calculation
- Total electorate: 289,624
- Majority Seat voting power: 147,655
Total voting power = 289,624 − 147,655 = 141,969
Percentage of total electorate = 141,969 / 289,624 ≈ 49.02%
Majority Seat voting power = 147,655 / 289,624 ≈ 50.98% → equivalent to 1.02 seats in office (out of 2) Minority Seat voting power = 49.02% → equivalent to 0.98 seats in office (out of 2)