Five Candidates Hypothetical

Five Candidates Hypothetical
Hypothetical run by Copilot using Elected Together Methodology

1. Scenario interpretation framework

Candidate table

CandidateAffiliation
Blue 1Progressive
Red 1Conservative
Green 1Independent/Centrist
Gold 1Libertarian
Purple 1Social Democrat

Voter group table

Design aims:

  • Strong Blue–Red separation (no large crossover blocs).
  • Green and Gold act as bridge preferences: Purple leans Blue.
  • No first-round majority; some truncated rankings to exercise exhaustion rules if triggered.
GroupSize1st choice2nd choice3rd choice4th choice5th choice
G118Blue 1Green 1Purple 1Gold 1Red 1
G210Blue 1Green 1Gold 1Purple 1
G38Blue 1Purple 1Green 1
G416Red 1Gold 1Green 1Purple 1Blue 1
G510Red 1Gold 1Green 1
G68Red 1Green 1
G79Green 1Blue 1Purple 1Gold 1Red 1
G85Green 1Red 1Gold 1Blue 1Purple 1
G96Gold 1Red 1Green 1Blue 1Purple 1
G103Gold 1Red 1Green 1
G114Purple 1Blue 1Green 1Gold 1Red 1
G123Purple 1Blue 1Green 1
  • Total electorate: 100 voters

2. Majority seat RCV process

First-choice tally

CandidateVotesFrom groups
Blue 136G1, G2, G3
Red 134G4, G5, G6
Green 114G7, G8
Gold 19G9, G10
Purple 17G11, G12
  • No candidate > 50% → proceed to runoff.

Round 1: eliminate Purple 1 (7)

Transfers:

  • G11 (4): to Blue 1 (next viable)
  • G12 (3): to Blue 1 (next viable)

Tally after transfer:

CandidateVotesExhausted
Blue 1430
Red 1340
Green 1140
Gold 190

Round 2: eliminate Gold 1 (9)

Transfers:

  • G9 (6): to Red 1 (next viable)
  • G10 (3): to Red 1 (next viable)

Tally after transfer:

CandidateVotesExhausted
Blue 1430
Red 1430
Green 1140

Round 3: eliminate Green 1 (14)

Transfers:

  • G7 (9): to Blue 1 (next viable)
  • G8 (5): to Red 1 (next viable)

Final majority tally:

CandidateVotesExhausted
Blue 1520
Red 1480
  • Majority seat winner: Blue 1 at 52%

Majority seat power allocation

  • Ballots contributing to Blue 1’s win: G1 (18), G2 (10), G3 (8), G11 (4), G12 (3), G7 (9).
    • Total used: (18 + 10 + 8 + 4 + 3 + 9 = 52).
  • Second-choice additions (not used in deciding the winner): None. No remaining groups list Blue 1 as second without already transferring to Blue 1.
  • Majority seat voting power: (2.0 \times 0.52 = 1.04) seats.
  • Removed from minority pool (power attribution rule): G1, G2, G3, G7, G11, G12 → (52) ballots.

3. Minority seat RCV process

Minority pool composition

GroupSize1st choice2nd choice3rd choice
G416Red 1Gold 1Green 1
G510Red 1Gold 1Green 1
G68Red 1Green 1
G85Green 1Red 1Gold 1
G96Gold 1Red 1Green 1
G103Gold 1Red 1Green 1
  • Ballots in minority pool: (16 + 10 + 8 + 5 + 6 + 3 = 48)

First-choice tally (minority pool)

CandidateVotesFrom groups
Red 134G4, G5, G6
Gold 19G9, G10
Green 15G8
Blue 10
Purple 10
  • No candidate > 50% of 48 → proceed.

Round 1 (minority): dual elimination of Blue 1 and Purple 1 (both at 0)

  • Both eliminated simultaneously (no transfers).

Tally unchanged:

CandidateVotesExhausted
Red 1340
Gold 190
Green 150

Round 2 (minority): eliminate Green 1 (5)

Transfers:

  • G8 (5): to Red 1 (next viable)

Final minority tally:

CandidateVotesExhausted
Red 1390
Gold 190
  • Minority seat winner: Red 1 (39 of 48)

Minority seat voting power

  • Remaining power: (2.0 – 1.04 = 0.96) seats.
  • Minority seat: Red 1 with (0.96) seats of voting power.

4. Final seat outcomes

Seat typeCandidateAffiliationVoting power
Majority seatBlue 1 (Alice)Progressive1.04
Minority seatRed 1 (Ben)Conservative0.96

5. Narrative and explanation

  • Coalition dynamics: Blue and Red remain polarized with minimal direct crossover. Purple’s support flows to Blue; Gold’s to Red; Green splits, slightly favoring Blue via G7 and Red via G8. This creates a symmetric mid-game (43–43) before Green’s elimination decides the majority.
  • Runoff logic clarity: No first-round majority; sequential eliminations proceed without ties after Round 1. No ballots exhausted, as each eliminated bloc had a next viable ranking. If any ballot had truncated at elimination, its weight would have been split equally among remaining candidates per ET rules.
  • Power attribution effects: With no second-choice additions available for Blue 1, office power tracks the actual win margin closely (1.04). Removing the winner’s contributing ballots preserves a robust minority pool.
  • Representation outcome: Red 1 dominates the minority pool and secures 0.96 seats—near-parity influence—setting the stage for meaningful shared stewardship in the annual vote.